Italian earthquakes: 800 aftershocks in Emilia-Romagna and 'more to come'
Apennines movement behind 5.8-magnitude quake and other seismic events in north Italy, say experts
Tom Kington, in Rome
Emilia Romagna, the Italian region that has some of the country's finest culture and produces what many consider Italy's best food, was coming to terms on Tuesdaywith the idea that it could be shaking violently for years to come.
Residents were told by experts that there was no telling when the spate of earthquakes would subside.
"It is likely they could continue for years," said Giuliano Panza, professor of seismology at the University of Trieste.
Since they were first thrown out of bed in the early hours of 20 May by a 6.0-magnitude quake, residents' nerves have been jarred by 800 aftershocks. But Tuesday's 5.8 jolt was nothing less than an entirely new earthquake, said Italy's civil protection chief, Franco Gabrielli.
According to Giulio Selvaggi, the director of Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology, the two quakes originated from two entirely different faults deep below the surface. But he said they were caused by the same phenomenon.
"It is down to the pressure caused as the Apennine mountains push slowly north under the Po valley," he explained. "The whole area has been shaking for a year, with shocks above 4.5, and we just cannot say if we have reached the climax yet."
Selvaggi said that nearby Ferrara was hit by a quake in 1570, only to be struck again four years later. "History teaches us everything and I cannot rule out a repeat of that," he said.
Experts point out that Italy is, and always has been, a seismic hotspot, most recently seen in L'Aquila, where 300 died in 2009.
"Calabria has been shaking for two years, with a 4.3 registered two days ago, and that is nothing to do with what is happening in Emilia Romagna," said Selvaggi.
Panza was part of a team who used algorithms to identify a swath of northern Italy and the Apennines where there was increased probability of an earthquake measuring over 5.4 between March and September.
"We will be doing another calculation in July to see if the prediction is still valid to September," he said.
The current anti-quake building in Emilia Romagna was too soft, he warned. "Our findings suggest the area should be moved up from third level danger to second level," he said.
Local campaigners claimed they were right to contest the planned building of a massive gas storage container deep underground in the province of Modena, where Tuesday's quake struck, fearing it could make the risk of future earthquakes worse.
The Italian firm ERG is in partnership with the UK company Independent Resources concerning a proposal to dig a tank measuring six hectares, more than two miles underground and capable of holding 3.7m cubic metres of compressed gas. "The process is still under evaluation," a spokeswoman said on Tuesday.
Maurizio Melucci, a tourism assessor with the regional government of Emilia Romagna, said that it would be business as usual this summer at the coastal resort of Rimini, which had escaped the quake.
The region is famous for its cheese, prosciutto ham and Ferraris.
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